Validating GFS and GEFS Forecasts of Arctic Surface Fluxes against Saildrone Observations: Uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) called Saildrones have been utilized to collect in situ meteorological observations at the air-sea interface in the Arctic, a rapidly changing region where obtaining ground truth data is challenging. Air-sea fluxes of latent and sensible heat are important components of the positive feedback loop involving sea ice melt and higher ocean temperatures. However, little work has been done to validate Arctic fluxes in numerical models with ground truth data. This research compares USV data with forecasts generated by the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The analysis of latent and sensible heat fluxes, along with their related state variables, assesses the accuracy of predictions by the GFS and GEFS products and reveals insights into sources of error in flux predictions. Surprising differences between deterministic and ensemble model errors indicate that Arctic forecasts may be particularly sensitive to certain model attributes. The study identifies biases in the models and highlights potential areas for forecast improvement, informing how better predictions of the Arctic environment can be developed.

Speaker: Hope Hunter, PhD Candidate (Advisor Hannah Horowitz)

Spatiotemporally Explicit Urban Surface Constraints and Their Uncertainties For Earth System Modeling

The project will be funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change (LCLUC) Program, funded at $750,000, spanning three years (2025 — 2027). Lei Zhao is the PI, and the two co-PIs are Prof. Karen Seto from Yale University and Dr. Tirthankar Chakraborty from Pacific Northwest National Lab(PNNL). 

Project Summary: Climate change coupled with urbanization represents the biggest challenge of our generation, nationally and globally. To address this key Global Grand Challenge, it is urgent to better understand urban landcover land use change, its impacts on cities across the globe, and its interactions with climate systems across scales. Cities do not necessarily have to be a problem, but rather, should be a key to solutions,with the ability to shield urban residents from broader scale climate change. Realizing this goal, however, requires advanced data and tools, both to better understand urbanization and their impacts and for planning effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Read More Information

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“Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks” was published September 12, 2024 in the Nature Climate Change publication.